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The strong demand for optical fiber and cable is expected to start a new round of business cycle
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The domestic 5G construction is advancing, the data traffic continues to grow, and the demand for optical fiber and cable is growing steadily. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country has built the world’s largest 5G network, and the total number of 5G base stations accounts for more than 60% of the world. In 2021, my country will add about 654,000 5G base stations, with a total of 1.425 million; in 2022, it will continue to promote 5G and vertical industries. Deep integration, aiming to build more than 600,000 5G base stations. According to the “14th Five-Year Plan” Information and Communication Industry Development Plan, my country strives to have 26 5G base stations per 10,000 people in 2025. Based on the domestic population of 1.413 billion, my country’s 5G base stations will exceed 3.67 million in 2025. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country’s mobile Internet access traffic will reach 221.6 billion GB in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%; the annual DOU will reach 13.36GB/user month, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. Both access and backhaul of 5G base stations require the use of optical fibers and cables. At the same time, the large-scale construction of 5G adopts an independent networking mode, which is expected to further accelerate the development of the optical fiber and cable industry.
With the advent of the dual gigabit era, user demands force network upgrades. The steady development of the “5G+Dual Gigabit” basic disk promotes the continuous increase in the demand for optical fiber and cable, and at the same time empowers technological innovation in the industry to help realize the optical connection of everything in the city. As of the end of May 22, the number of gigabit users reached 55.91 million (the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s plan of 30 million households in 2023 has already been exceeded, and the 25-year goal of 60 million in the “14th Five-Year Plan” Digital Economy Development Plan is about to be achieved, and the speed of progress exceeds expectations ), and according to Omdia’s forecast, more than half of the world’s users with a speed of 500 Mbps or above will account for more than half of them in 2026. We believe that user demand is expected to force fixed network upgrades, and the basic disk of optical fiber and cable is stable.
The penetration rate of overseas optical fiber access is low, and other countries have set FTTx development goals. According to the “White Paper on China’s Broadband Development”, the construction of optical fiber networks in European countries is relatively weak. 95% of fixed network users in Germany still use cable access, and the proportion of optical fiber cable users in Britain and France is only 34% and 56%. Deutsche Telekom announced that it will strive to achieve 10 million households with fiber optics in 2024, and all households with fiber optics in 2030; Spain launched the “Spain Digital 2025″ plan to promote the penetration rate of 100M broadband to 100%; the Italian government plans to spend 6.7 billion euros to expand broadband The internet. In South America, Brazil plans to cover 85% of cities and towns with fiber optic networks and 95% of the population with broadband networks by 2022. CRU predicts that 25 million FTTH/B household users will be added in Europe in 2021, and the demand for optical cables in Western Europe will increase by 11.3% year-on-year in 2021. According to CRU estimates, the average annual compound growth rate of optical cable demand in emerging markets will be 5%-6% from 2022 to 2026. In 2026, the FTTH penetration rate in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa is expected to reach 36%.
Overseas 5G construction speeds up. According to GSMA data, as of October 2021, 174 operators around the world have provided 5G services. From 2021 to 2025, global operators will invest a total of US$700 billion to build 5G networks. By the end of 2025, there will be 1.8 billion 5G connections worldwide, of which North America and the Asia-Pacific region will have the highest market adoption rate. China will have 858 million 5G connections, accounting for nearly 50% of the total number of 5G connections in the world. CRU statistics show that since 2014, the demand for optical fiber and cable in regions other than China accounted for more than 50% for the first time, and overseas demand is expected to contribute to domestic optical fiber and cable companies.
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